When will video card prices drop? When will they actually appear in stores? Where did the consoles go? Why are the components so expensive? These questions haunt many gamers and concerned people.
It would seem that there is a banal explanation for everything: Sony and Microsoft simply did not take into account the demand and failed to launch the consoles, and the lack of video cards and crazy prices for components are explained by the rising price of cryptocurrency and miners.
Social networks, media personalities and popular resources actively promote these thoughts, encouraging with the words “someday the crypt will fall and miners will stop creating shortages.” But what if everything is not so simple? What if virtual currency miners are just a side effect of another phenomenon?
This article describes in detail the root of the problem of shortage of video cards/consoles and huge prices for components. Believe me, the problem is much more serious.
The history of shortages: from announcements to miners
The end of a terrible 2022. All gamers and people who care about technology are waiting for new generations of consoles, processors and video cards (and, of course, Cyberpunk). Some are planning to build a new PC, others are planning to buy the latest PlayStation or Xbox. Finally, Sony and Microsoft are introducing their consoles, and Jensen Huang is stunning with the performance of NVidia 3xx-series graphics cards.
The latest developments are pompously called “nextgen”, that is, the next step in the field of computer and console technologies. And what delicious recommended prices! The top RTX 3080 was promised to be sold for $699, and the 3070 for only $499 . Consoles did not lag behind: the latest generation was announced for $499, and Xbox even introduced the younger version of the Series S for $299. But something went wrong.
Europe is not far behind
Experts from the ComputerBase portal also noticed a decrease in prices for video accelerators. In Europe it turned out to be significantly more impressive.
According to the portal's statistics, the minimum price of the GeForce RTX 3070 card fell by a third, from 1500 euros on May 17, 2022 to 1000 euros on June 17, 2022. The RTX 3080 is trying to keep up - in one month it fell in price from 2300 euros to 1500 euros.
European prices
More affordable video cards are also falling in price, as can be seen in the example of the 3060. Back on May 17, 2022, this card cost 950 euros, and on June 17, 2022, it could be purchased for 640 euros.
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However, even such a rapid drop in prices does not mean that cards in Europe are now worth adequate money. ComputerBase has listed the recommended retail price for each of them (unverbindliche preisempfehlung, UVP - German), and it is noticeably lower than the final prices. For 3060, 3070 and 3080 the UVP is 330 euros, 520 euros and 720 euros respectively.
Alarm bells
After the excellent presentations, players rushed to place pre-orders - the manufacturers claimed that there would be enough video cards and consoles for everyone. However, the first batches flew away instantly, and people became suspicious. Bitcoin slowly began to grow, and thanks to it, other cryptocurrencies also strengthened.
Sony, Microsoft and NVidia denied it, saying that they simply did not expect such an influx of buyers. After waiting for the next delivery, gamers ran to the stores, but the goods disappeared somewhere again.
Someone managed to snatch the console and video card at the recommended price, looking sarcastically at the losers. Well, let's wait for the next delivery, especially since the company promises to fix everything and increase production. But that was not the case: if the consoles somehow covered the demand, then hard times came for the “bakers”.
The deficit has been overcome, but not everywhere
According to Geizhals.eu, the metamorphosis taking place in the video card market affected not only the cost of accelerators. Because of the miners who bought up all the cards, a global shortage arose, which also provoked a rise in prices.
Now, most modern cards at a price of up to 2,200 euros can be purchased in the store without pre-ordering or waiting. Some accelerators, however, are still not available, but they are becoming less and less available.
There are no more problems with the presence of video cards
In some cases, cards are available in one or more stores. However, the situation has really started to improve, as evidenced by the MSI GeForce RTX 3080 Ti Suprim X 12G card. At the time of publication, it was available in at least 28 points of sale.
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Thousands of miles from Europe, visitors to major stores in the Akihabara area of Tokyo, Japan, are also reporting that graphics cards have begun to appear on shelves again. Most new video cards that appear on sale have a reduced hashrate, which means miners are of little interest to them.
However, in Japan, unlike Europe, prices for cards are in no hurry to fall, and for some of them they are even rising. But there is no longer a shortage in this country.
The situation in the USA is different from Europe and the USA. Large online retailers, including Amazon and Newegg, still do not have large stocks of cards. Other retailers are in no hurry to reduce prices on 3000 series cards, as well as on their predecessors, the GeForce RTX 2000.
No video cards, but you hold on
Bitcoin is breaking records, demand for mining farms is growing. Video cards simply do not reach stores, as if NVidia and AMD have closed their production facilities. Increasingly, photographs of huge hangars with graphics accelerators are popping up online.
Naturally, some particularly enterprising people appeared: having snatched a video card, the “businessman” sold the component several times higher than the retail price. The same disease plagued consoles, and the PlayStation 5 suffered the most from this. Scalping caused a storm of negativity, as the first months of sales were marked by a huge number of inflated offers on ad sites. However, now we can say with confidence that the resale of consoles does not bring so much profit, and the process is moving from stagnation to decline.
But video card scalping is only growing. In addition, the producers themselves planted the pig.
According to The Verge , on March 23, 2022, the cost of the RTX 3080 was 3.09 times higher than the original price! “People’s” 3060, released with a software blocker for Bitcoin mining, is 2.5 times, and 3060 Ti is 3.07. Not only does the 3060’s protection work at the software level (which means it can be hacked), but NVidia itself “accidentally” released a driver that removes the lock. It turns out that the lack of buyers and slow production are compensated by the huge cost. In short, trouble!
And against the background of rising prices, rising prices for cryptocurrencies and, as a result, increasing demand for mining, a common opinion has taken hold among gamers: miners are to blame for everything, and manufacturers do nothing about them. But believe me, NVidia and AMD are happy to meet everyone's needs, but they can't.
What's Happening on eBay
Tom's Hardware specialists noticed not only a decrease in prices for the vast majority of popular video cards, but also a drop in their sales. For example, the flagship Nvidia GeForce RTX 3090 card cost about $3,002 on eBay during the period from June 1 to June 15, 2022, and during this time 491 copies were purchased. Meanwhile, from April 28 to May 12, 2022, sales totaled 751 units, and the price was $3,140.
Prices on eBay in the first half of June 2022 (left) and early May 2022
Some cards have fallen in price even more. If in the first half of June 2022 the RTX 3080 cost $1,978 on eBay and was bought 1,114 times, then in the previous reporting period 1,177 such cards were sold at a price of $2,235.
The AMD Radeon 6900 XT card has really increased in price. From April 28 to May 12, 2022, it was worth $1,861 and was bought 127 times, and in the first half of June 2022, its value rose to $1,884. During this period, 93 such accelerators were sold.
Experts at Tom's Hardware have not yet ventured to speculate on the reasons for the negative dynamics of card prices in the case of eBay. It should be noted that their sample includes only gaming video cards - there are no accelerators adapted for mining.
Why shortages are not just a “mining boom”
And now the worst part: deglobalization, a pandemic and an overheated stock market . It sounds complicated and abstruse, but the problem of shortage of consoles, video cards, components and other goods arose back in 2007.
Economic background
Everyone knows that the trends in the world economy are dictated by the United States, because the focus of investment and technology is located there. In the 20th century, enormous resources flowed into the country, making it a powerful economic engine. Having developed their own institutions, the States begin to invest in other countries, setting transaction terms that are convenient for themselves. This is how the United States became the world economic leader, personally growing Europe and Asia and earning huge dividends.
It is interesting that in history there have always been centers of trade and technological development - the Dutch cycle (16-18 centuries) , British (18-20 centuries) and American , in which we live. But don't forget the key feature of every cycle: it always ends.
Having received the palm from Britain, the United States quickly jumped ahead: what are Hollywood, legal reforms and key scientific discoveries fueled by the Cold War. America and the USSR began to divide spheres of influence, investing in poorer neighbors. Only now the Union of Republics collapsed, and the States moved on.
Owning the latest technologies and buying out all startups, the American economy has become the strongest on the planet. Simply put, all developed and developing countries in the world benefit from America’s “gifts.” And you have no idea how bad it is.
Stock market bubble
The United States economy is driven by the stock market. When humanity made progress in certain areas, investors began to pour money into securities - stocks. That is, there are no technological and production improvements, but funds continue to be invested, inflating capitalization to incredible proportions. A striking example is Tesla, the brainchild of Elon Musk.
If you google the price of a company's shares and its capitalization, you will ask a logical question: is it really worth that much? Of course not! If you take a pure production process, Tesla would be one of the poorest car companies in the world. But investors artificially inflated the value of shares in the stock market, creating a sense of stability and wealth. But this is a real soap bubble - slowly inflating, it instantly bursts. And 2007 showed the complete failure of such a strategy.
The crisis that hit the world that year stunned both investors and ordinary people. It turns out that huge amounts of money were circulating in the economy, but they were not spent on increasing production and developing technology. Of course, there has been some progress, but it cannot be called breakthrough. Large companies relaxed, believing that current production would be enough and there would never be a repeat of the Great Depression for the United States.
But, unfortunately, that's not how the stock market works. The bubble bursts sooner or later, damaging the economy of the entire world . However, after a while, everything returns to normal, because no one can offer an alternative. Investors are again investing money in non-existent production, and companies believe that now they have definitely provided for everything. But COVID-19 has once again exposed the stock market's inconsistency, and we are once again on the verge of another crisis that governments are trying their best to contain.
Prices are lower
Prices for video cards have moved from rapid growth worldwide to moderate decline in some regions and online stores. Currently, a similar situation is observed in China, as well as in Europe and eBay.
According to the Tom's Hardware portal, on eBay the price of video cards began to rise for the first time since February 2022, when Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies began to actively rise in price. The portal's specialists claim that the current reduction in price has affected almost all video accelerators, with the only exception being the AMD Radeon 6900 XT.
In Europe the situation is similar. According to the German portal ComputerBase, some cards have recently not only fallen in price - their price has dropped by a third. On the other hand, the new price tag cannot yet be called low or acceptable.
GeForce 3090, one of the most powerful graphics cards in the world, is becoming more affordable
In the Chinese market, cards are also rapidly becoming cheaper. The MyDrivers resource provided statistics from one of the Chinese stores selling computers and components (the name is not specified), which also observed a 30 percent decrease in card prices.
Why is cryptocurrency worth so much?
One of the limiting factors is cryptocurrency. Now part of the investment goes into Bitcoin and related currencies, inflating them to colossal proportions. The same Elon Musk is not lazy to invest in crypto: Tesla invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin.
Just imagine, Bitcoin’s capitalization has exceeded the ruble! While blockchain technology itself is great, investing in cryptocurrency is no different from the stock market. As quickly as Bitcoin has risen, it can fall just as quickly. This is about the mining boom, which must end someday. I hope it will not take place under the auspices of a global crisis.
China sets trends
ComputerBase specialists suggest that the price decline is due to problems in the cryptocurrency market. They mention the situation in China, where the authorities began to implement a policy of strict regulation and prohibition of mining, which led to a rapid drop in the value of Bitcoin.
According to the MyDrivers portal, in China there is a situation similar to Europe with top-end video cards. For example, in May 2021, the RTX 3090 card cost around 18 thousand yuan ($2800) in China, but now it is sold for 12.2 thousand yuan ($1900). Over the same period, the RTX 2070 fell in price from 10 thousand yuan ($1550) to 7500 yuan ($1160).
In China, as in Europe and on eBay, there is also a decrease in demand for video cards. If in May 2022 many models had to be ordered in advance, now they are all in stock. The MyDrivers portal connects this with the actions of the country's authorities. At the same time, a further drop in accelerator prices is unlikely. According to the portal, the global shortage of semiconductors will have its say here.
Production ramp-up
Let's go back to production. NVidia and AMD want to satisfy the needs of everyone - both miners and gamers. But production doesn’t allow it! A blow in the form of a pandemic that temporarily closed factories, the growth of cryptocurrency and increased demand is enough for the giants to immediately fall. The worst thing is that this applies not only to components, but also to other goods in global circulation.
NVidia and AMD have plans to release graphics cards for miners and increase production throughout 2022. Will this be another empty promise?
Brief overview of video card prices in 2022
Below we present some positions and indicate price deviations compared to mid-January 2022 (analysis at the end of March):
- GeForce GTX 1060 6GB: from 25.5 thousand rubles. (−14.8%);
- GeForce GTX 1070: from 38 thousand rubles. (−13.4%);
- GeForce GTX 1070 Ti: from 45 thousand rubles. (−8.2%);
- GeForce GTX 1080: from 49 thousand rubles. (−18.5%);
- GeForce GTX 1080 Ti: from 69 thousand rubles. (−11.9%);
- Radeon RX 560 4GB: from 10 thousand rubles. (−10.4%);
- Radeon RX 570 4GB: from 30 thousand rubles. (+11.9%);
- Radeon RX 580 8GB: from 34 thousand rubles. (+6.1%);
- Radeon RX Vega 56: from 56.5 thousand rubles. (+2.3%);
- Radeon RX Vega 64: from 56 thousand rubles (−12.2%).
In general, it can be noted that prices seemed to remain at the same level on average for all types of video cards, although the maximum increase was +11.9%, and the minimum decline was at -18.5%.
As you can see, price stability definitely exists, and all this is happening against the backdrop of a clear shortage of video cards and processors.
On the other hand, the fall in prices for dGPU products is caused by the fact that the decline in the entire crypto industry continues for the third month in a row.
You may ask where mining farm sellers get ready-made video cards. The answer here is very simple, the sellers either bought everything in advance, or are outbid, or just like you, they wait for months for the video card to arrive.
Some believe that a new computing algorithm can change the cost of video cards. But if you raise the cost of dGPU goods, then very soon it will become economically unprofitable to mine cryptocurrencies.
go
Deglobalization
But you can try to escape the crisis. The hero's name is deglobalization . This is a negative process that can be turned for good. If we talk about Russia, the country is increasingly moving away from the global economy, building ecosystems of domestic production. Thanks to this, the global collapse may not affect us, since internal processes will not depend on other countries.
China, Japan, South Korea and developed European countries are following the same path. Perhaps the next economic center will be Asia.
However, it is best to get rid of the addiction that leads to the inevitable bursting of the stock bubble.
I hope you are not too frightened by the economic processes awaiting us. The main message of my article is that not everything is clear. Sometimes a problem comes from where you least expect it.
