Ban of cryptocurrencies in the Russian Federation and Bitcoin at $16 thousand. Worst forecasts for 2022

Analysts explained what will happen to the digital asset market in the next 12 months if the most negative scenarios materialize

2021 has become a landmark year for the crypto market. Over the past 12 months, the crypto industry has attracted a record $30 billion in venture capital investment. This is more than has been invested in the market over all the years of its existence.

Over the same period, the capitalization of the digital asset market tripled and at the end of December is $2.4 trillion, according to CoinGecko. In November, the figure reached a historical high, exceeding $3 trillion (an increase of 290% since the beginning of the year). RBC-Crypto experts predicted the most negative events in the crypto market that could happen next year.

The collapse of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

On December 22, Bitcoin is trading at $48.4 thousand, and its capitalization is $930 billion. In early November, the asset updated its historical maximum above $69 thousand. Since then, the cryptocurrency has fallen in price by 30%.

Taking into account technical factors, next year the price of Bitcoin may fall by another 67%, to $16 thousand, says Alexey Yakovlevich, an analyst at the Currency.com crypto platform. In his opinion, such a collapse in the asset will certainly be taken advantage of by institutional investors who will want to increase their positions in Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency last traded at $16,000 in November 2020, so there is strong support in this area, the analyst explained.

In the event of a Bitcoin collapse, many new altcoins, which are highly correlated with the rate of the main digital asset, will fall in price by about 50% from the maximum, predicted Alexey Yakovlevich. According to him, the cost of “old” altcoins in this case may decrease to 90% of the maximum.

Typically, periods of deep correction in the crypto market last 2-3 years, since an active fall is followed by 1-2 years of complete calm, says an analyst at the Currency.com crypto platform. However, if a deep correction occurs next year, it will most likely end by the end of the year, the expert believes. He explained that many large companies and institutional investors have entered the market this year.

Why exactly $100 thousand?

There are two short answers to the question of why everyone in the crypto community is so interested in Bitcoin breaking through the $100,000 level. Here they are:

Because this is a psychologically important level, the same as $10 thousand, $50 thousand and so on. Its breakthrough will be a testament to the strength of the asset.
Because BTC at $100 thousand by the end of 2022 is the most popular Bitcoin forecast.

Let's take a look, from a technical perspective, at why many in the crypto community see BTC's growth potential.

Ban of cryptocurrencies in Russia

Last week, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said that the regulator opposes the use of Russian financial infrastructure for transactions with cryptocurrency. Nabiullina noted that the regulator has tools to limit the use of digital assets.

After this, the head of the Duma Committee on the Financial Market, Anatoly Aksakov, called for putting an end to the issue of regulating cryptocurrencies. According to Aksakov, the authorities need to decide on their position on digital assets and legislate it. The deputy also said that Russian residents have already invested 5 trillion rubles in cryptocurrencies.

On December 20, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Vladimir Chistyukhin said at a hearing in the State Duma that cryptocurrencies have no place in the Russian financial market. In mid-December, Reuters sources reported that the Bank of Russia plans to ban the circulation of cryptocurrencies in the country.

The Russian authorities may follow the example of China and choose the vector of limiting the use of cryptocurrencies, says Vladimir Gorbunov, co-founder of Crypterium. According to him, because of this, companies working with cryptocurrencies may face problems, since they will have to comply with special requirements. However, this will have virtually no effect on the shadow segment of the crypto market, the expert predicted.

“The decentralized part of the cryptocurrency world itself is difficult to regulate and control, regardless of what technologies or measures will be used for this,” explained Gorbunov.

Possible bans on cryptocurrencies in Russia will not have a significant impact on the international market of digital assets, the co-founder of Crypterium is sure. He explained this by the fact that most crypto investors are guided by statements from regulators in the US and China.

“If the event coincides with a general negative background and a noticeable drop in major cryptocurrencies, then changes in the Russian Federation can strengthen this downward trend,” Gorbunov added.

Bitcoin forecast for December 2022: investor opinions

An analyst who runs a microblog under the nickname TechDev agreed with PlanB’s opinion. He believes that Bitcoin has not yet managed to realize the growth potential inherent in it by the 2022 halving. This, TechDev is sure, is indicated by a technical analysis of the cryptocurrency chart.

The analyst analyzed Bitcoin movements after previous halvings and transferred the results to the current cycle. According to the results of TechDev market research, as part of the growth phase, BTC will be able, among other things, to break through the $150 thousand level.

Waiting for the #BTC 2-week close over the log 1.618. pic.twitter.com/bZkULiBceR
— TechDev (@TechDev_52) November 22, 2021

Another popular analyst in the crypto community, who runs a microblog under the nickname Altcoin Gordon, believes that Bitcoin will not be able to break through the $100 thousand level before the end of the year. At the same time, he sees the potential for updating the maximum value of BTC at $87 thousand.

Incase my new followers missed it,
Here are my price targets for the end of the year.
BTC $87K ETH $9,850 ADA $31 LINK $121 COTI $10 ETHERIUM $9,200 XRP $1.21
What do you think?
— Altcoin Gordon (@AltcoinGordon) November 21, 2021

The Crypto Rover analyst, in turn, is also confident that Bitcoin will be able to continue its growth in 2022. In 2022, in his opinion, the cryptocurrency is capable of breaking through the $200 thousand level.

#Crypto price predictions for 2022!Bitcoin : $200,000 Ethereum: $10,000#BNB : $2,000 #SOL: $1,500#Kasta: $25
— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) November 21, 2021

One of the main critics of PlanB, an analyst who runs a microblog under the nickname Mr., did not agree with the opinion of market participants. Whale. He believes that Bitcoin has already realized all the growth potential inherent in it by the halving. According to Mr. Whale, Bitcoin investors should not expect a new high in the next few years.

Introducing my new PlanB Whale Model. Using “real math”, we've updated the algorithmic curve!
Look 43 years to create this!
pic.twitter.com/2SjrCzcUMX -Mr. Whale (@CryptoWhale) November 18, 2021

Let us remind you that the Bitcoin network recently carried out an important Taproot update. The editors of BeInCrypto were able to talk with experts about how exactly the upgrade will affect the position of the most capitalized cryptocurrency.

Which Bitcoin forecast is closest to you? Share your opinion in our Telegram channel.

Collapse of financial markets and flagship asset

American entrepreneur, writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki made his prediction towards the collapse of the entire financial market. Although he is popular as a writer on income and finance, Kiyosaki was wrong in his prediction. He shared his expectations for the imminent collapse of all assets , which was supposed to happen in October. In addition to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, he expected a collapse in gold and securities. As the basis for his theory, he named the problem of debt and its ratio to GDP. When the forecast of a market collapse in October was not confirmed, Kiyosaki again made a statement that the market for cryptocurrencies, precious metals and real estate was expected to fall . However, this time his forecast did not indicate a time frame.

He's so young!

“We don’t think anything extraordinary happened,” says Evgeniy Dubovoy, founder of the crypto trading development platform Simdaq. The cryptocurrency market, he explains, is still very young, with an insufficient number of professional participants. As a result, there is significant volatility. Thus, in fact, the routine price correction against the background of somewhat overheated demand and unclear prospects with the hard fork (change in the Bitcoin protocol) turns into a very noticeable fluctuation in percentage terms.

Over time, Evgeny Dubovoy believes, when cryptocurrencies are perceived as an important part of any investment portfolio, qualified investors with sufficient capital will be able to easily and timely compensate for the emotional movement of the crowd. In the meantime, we will have to come to terms with the fact that such fluctuations are possible both in one direction and in the other.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ABOUT BITCOIN VALUE

Here's our little Q&A regarding Bitcoin price fluctuations.

Will Bitcoin return to its price level on December 17?

According to leading cryptanalysts, Bitcoin will gain momentum after its price halves in 2022.

According to Joe Kernen, host of CNBC's Squawk Box, the Bitcoin exchange rate is expected to increase by 500% in the next 10 months. In May 2022, the price of the coin will reach $55,000 thanks to the mechanism of changing supply and demand dynamics, which is built into the blockchain asset chain.

Morgan Creek Digital founder and partner Anthony Pompliano suggested that halving the first cryptocurrency would have a positive impact on its growth over the next 12-18 months.

Where is Bitcoin going as a project?

Bitcoin is now developing in those areas in which it has real prospects, namely: • Every day the number of projects accepting Bitcoin as a primary means of payment is growing. Transactions with bitcoins help avoid blocking of funds, bypassing traditional financial institutions. • Bitcoin provides opportunities similar to banking services. In some areas, people already have access to Bitcoin ATMs, where you can withdraw funds from your wallet or transfer them to a Bitcoin card account. Such cards can be an alternative to debit bank cards. • Bitcoin is a ready-made solution for those who do not want or cannot use the specified currency, who do not fully trust central banks, live in a country with a deteriorating economy or in a region where there is no stable currency.

Is it true that BTC will soon go out of circulation?

Bitcoin is still in the red zone (as of October 17, 2022). During one trading day, its average market value decreased by 2.01% to $8,024. Most of the largest altcoins by capitalization also show depreciation.

We hope for a successful outcome due to the reduction of remuneration by almost half. However, the price of Bitcoin should rise, which will affect the state of the entire cryptocurrency market.

Is Bitcoin a financial bubble?

Well-known economists often call Bitcoin a speculative bubble. In particular, the American economist and former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan called Bitcoin a bubble without an inherent currency. Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller argues that Bitcoin has many characteristics that make it similar to an economic bubble.

Journalist Matthew Besler refuted the popular opinion and stated that the rapid increase in the value of bitcoins is due to normal economic processes. Journalist Timothy B. Lee wrote in a piece for the Washington Post that a sharp rise and fall in currency prices does not define an economic bubble.

Cryptocurrency market correction and Bitcoin price increase

Popular cryptocurrency analyst Willy Wu made a forecast for a market correction at the end of last month. He was sure that it would end very soon. In his predictions, Wu referred to various indicators and metrics that he believed showed that would end . Regarding Bitcoin, the analyst argued that the asset is approaching the final stage in the accumulation phase . After this, its rate should have resumed growth . Willy Wu was confident that the increase in the value of BTC would begin within a few days of his forecast.

Bitcoin price forecast for 2022. Experts' opinions

From its peak in December 2017 to October 2022, the Bitcoin rate decreased threefold. And if this trend scares beginners, experienced players remain calm. A decline after such colossal growth is a natural phenomenon, they say, and the status quo will be restored in 2022. You can view the current BTC exchange rate and also use the cryptocurrency calculator on the Coinmania website.

Let's see how leading crypto industry analysts assess Bitcoin's prospects. We analyzed the latest publications, selected the most interesting forecasts regarding the military-technical cooperation rate for 2019 and bring them to your attention.

Whales and Chinese

It is also reported that the fall in the value of Bitcoin is associated with the transfer of funds by speculators to Bitcoin Cash, the capitalization of which since Friday Bitcoin Cash has grown by 40%, to $29.9 billion, overtaking Ethereum ($29.3 billion).

Anton Bukov explains what is happening in such a way that this time the “whales” came up with a new clue: “the Chinese want to make Bitcoin Cash the main Bitcoin.” They believed the horror story, and the whales made super-profits from the fall and sharp reversal of Bitcoin. It is expected that the next drops will also be associated with the simultaneous growth of forks (branches) of Bitcoin, for example Bitcoin Gold. The recent fall cost the “whales” at least 25,000 bitcoins. How much they earned from it is anyone’s guess.