Bitcoin Miner is a virus that hunts for your hardware


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Bitcoin: basic principles of mining


A lot has been written about Bitcoin (BTC) on Habré (even too much lately). How it works, about the interest in it from the government and intelligence services. There have been many attempts to bury Bitcoin and then dig it back up. We even conducted excursions to an ostrich farm. But somehow, looking at it, a complete picture did not emerge.

I will try to partially fill this gap and outline in several posts the basic principles and history of how bitcoins were and are mined. Mainly attention will be paid to the technological side of the issue, and not to high-profile scandals in the world of media and politics. Also, I will try to avoid repeating what has already been written about more than once. This time we will talk about the general principles of mining. UPD

: details of how Bitcoin itself works can be found here.

Bitcoin mining: “who are all these people?”

First, let's try to answer the question: who actually mines bitcoins? Below are the main categories of people who have mined or are mining bitcoins, taking into account the chronology of their appearance on the scene. 1) Schoolchildren and students who have access to cheap (or completely free) electricity and hardware, at the expense of their parents and universities. 2) Gamers who use their gaming PCs to mine bitcoins in between computer battles. 3) Geeks who buy several PCs for mining, and who are usually stopped only by the exhaustion of power supply/cooling/free space resources (or the patience of relatives and neighbors) 4) Hackers who deploy botnets and use stolen computing power for mining. 5) Communities organizing to jointly purchase equipment and mine bitcoins, with subsequent sharing of the benefits received. 6) Companies that managed to receive funding from enthusiasts through an analogue of an IPO on online exchanges that trade for bitcoin. Such companies develop specialized hardware (ASIC) for subsequent bitcoin mining and distribute dividends. As you can see, a rather motley company.

Bitcoin mining

The essence of bitcoin mining comes down to solving a certain complex crypto-problem, for which there is no better approach than brute force. Bitcoins are not mined one at a time, but in “packs” or blocks. The block size was initially 50 BTC, but it is halved after every 210 thousand blocks mined. Now more than 250 thousand blocks have already been mined, which means that one block brings 25 BTC. A new block is mined approximately every 10 minutes. Due to periodic block reward halving, the total supply of BTC will never exceed 21 million, ~55% of all BTC has already been mined and this figure is projected to reach 99% by 2032. Periodically, every 2016 mined blocks, the difficulty of their extraction is adjusted. The adjustment is based on the mining rate in the last period and is needed to maintain the average block mining interval at 10 minutes. If the number of computers simultaneously mining Bitcoins generally increases, then the daily reward (equal to 24*6*25 = 3600 BTC) remains unchanged. This means that each computer accounts for an ever smaller share of the overall “pie”. Bitcoin mining only makes sense as long as the cost of the mined BTC exceeds the cost of equipment and electricity. Because The difficulty of BTC mining is steadily increasing, and the USD/BTC exchange rate is subject to fluctuations; the least energy-efficient means of BTC mining are gradually excluded from the process. Although, a sharp increase in the USD/BTC rate may make their return to operation profitable.

(This time just) a little history

Bitcoin was the result of the development of ideas embedded in pre-existing cryptocurrencies. And he first appeared on the scene in November 2008, when a user under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto published an article describing the system of the new currency. Already in January 2009, the system began to function, and its popularity grew slowly at first, but soon grew exponentially. There is a known case when one person paid 10 thousand for a pizza. BTC (several million $ at current rates). Nakamoto disappeared in April 2011, and his identity remains a mystery.

USD/BTC rate


Figure 1. Dynamics of the USD/BTC exchange rate and mining difficulty
(data source)

Figure 1 shows the dynamics of the USD/BTC exchange rate over time. Since 2010, the rate has risen sharply. If in July 2010 1 BTC cost $0.05, then by August 2013 it had already surpassed $105. There are two jumps in this interval - one in June 2011, when Bitcoin cost $31.5 and in April 2013, when the rate jumped to $266 (and now up to $1000). Sharp jumps and crashes in the exchange rate are most often associated with periods of intense media attention and the rise of fears/rumors about protocol vulnerabilities or hacking of organizations responsible for exchanging BTC for other currencies. Such rumors are each time accompanied by a wave of people wanting to sell bitcoins and a collapse in the exchange rate. The main reason that makes BTC so attractive for speculation is the upper limit on the number of BTC, equal to 21 million. If someday BTC does replace gold as the standard for storing savings, then, equating the value of the world's gold reserves to the total cost of bitcoins, we can say that one BTC will cost $71,000 - much more than now (almost two orders of magnitude, even based on recent speculation).

BTC Mining Difficulty

Figure 1 also shows how the difficulty of mining Bitcoin has changed over time. In less than 4 years, the complexity has increased by 50 million. once. If at the beginning the complexity corresponded to 4-8 general-purpose processor cores capable of sorting out approximately 7 million hashes per second (MH/s), now the speed of joint brute force efforts exceeds 7 petahashes per second (PH/s). This growth was facilitated by 2 factor a. First, the growth of the USD/BTC exchange rate allows you to cover the costs of operating more mining equipment. Secondly, during this time there have been significant changes in both software and hardware for bitcoin mining. Again, the points where the difficulty of BTC mining falls correspond to the places where the USD/BTC rate collapses.

Innovations in hardware and software for mining

Progress was incredibly fast, changes followed one after another. In September 2010, the first publicly available CUDA miner appeared. Already in October 2010, it was followed by the first miner for OpenCL. Almost immediately after this, in November 2010, the phenomenon of pooled mining arose, when a group of computers performs a distributed search of hashes, and, when mining a block of bitcoins, divides the reward between participants in proportion to their contribution to the common cause. Such pools very quickly grew to the size of thousands of participants, allowing the latter to receive small amounts every day, rather than large amounts (50 or 25 BTC) every few months. At that time, the difficulty of mining a block of bitcoins was equal to about a month of operation of one Hi-End GPU. One of the key innovations that made mining pools possible was the ability to verify that a computer had actually done the hash-brute force job it claimed to have done, and to eliminate the possibility of a user "escaping" when his computer got lucky during the search. stumble upon the answer. Unfortunately, mining pools serve as “hubs” of sorts, which goes against the distributed nature of Bitcoin and potentially compromises the transaction confirmation process. In June 2011, the first open source miner for FPGA appeared. And then in January 2013 the first ASIC miner appeared and many improvements followed. The BTC mining difficulty graph shows the dates when these technologies were introduced.

performance and energy efficiency

Hi-End CPUs (like Core i7 990x), subjected to overclocking, achieved performance of 33 MH/s, and Hi-End GPU from NVidia (like GTX 570) 155 MH/s. At the same time, AMD GPUs (like the 7970 for $450) performed much more convincingly, at 675 MH/s. The next step in evolution is associated with the emergence of FPGA miners, which, although they were slightly inferior to AMD video cards in the cost of hardware per unit of performance ($/MH/s), but consumed 60W instead of 200W. A company called Butterfly Labs (BFL) has started selling FPGA miners that could eventually replace GPUs due to lower power consumption. But here ASIC miners come onto the scene, giving gains by orders of magnitude compared to FPGAs. Due to their use, the total performance skyrockets, and with it the complexity of block mining, which inevitably leaves both GPUs and FPGAs out of work.


Figure 2. FPGA-based Bitcoin mining rig

Mining strategy

An important question for those involved in bitcoin mining is: when investing money in hardware for bitcoin mining will bring more profit than simply buying them through an exchange.
Many specialized BTC mining hardware (or stakes in companies that operate such hardware for you) have a price listed in BTC. Agree, it would be stupid to buy such equipment and never get your investment back, especially considering the maintenance and electricity bills. To answer this question, it is necessary to estimate the return on funds from Bitcoin mining. In conditions of exponential growth in the complexity of mining new bitcoins, the ability of hardware to mine bitcoins also decreases exponentially. With the difficulty increasing by approximately 1.2 times every two weeks, 66% of the bitcoins that the hardware is capable of producing during its operation occur in the first quarter of operation. 22% for the second quarter, 7% for the third, and only 4% for the rest of the time. Moreover, on the first day of operation, ~1/80 of all bitcoins that can be mined on this device during its operation will be mined. The profit from using Bitcoin mining hardware is obtained by adding up the exponentially decreasing amount of Bitcoin mined per unit time, minus the operating and acquisition costs, plus the price at which the hardware can be sold after completing its life cycle as a Bitcoin miner.

Some of these parameters are known at the time of purchase; for example, the price of the equipment, the USD/BTC exchange rate at that moment and operating costs. It is also easy to estimate the number of bitcoins mined on the first day of work, because The delivery time of the equipment is easy to estimate (just don’t think about Russian Post here), and the performance of the same GPUs in GH/s is the first thing that users begin to measure on the relevant forums. Maintenance costs are directly related to equipment specifications and electricity bills. An estimate of how much hardware will be sold for in the future is made (albeit approximately) by studying sites like e-bay.

The main risk lies in the dynamics of the USD/BTC exchange rate. If the rate grows, the profit from mined bitcoins also increases, and it also makes sense to leave the equipment in service for a longer period. If the rate stops growing or collapses, mining bitcoins becomes less attractive, and to maximize profits, it makes sense to turn off the equipment and try to sell it earlier.

Changes in hardware price behave differently over time for different types of devices. The price of AMD GPUs decreases very slightly over the course of a year of operation. While the situation with specialized equipment is exactly the opposite, because Its only purpose is mining. Specialized solutions based on FPGA or ASIC have much higher risks associated with the delivery date of the equipment - the price at which they are willing to buy them, and how much you can earn on them, directly depends on the date of their entry into the mining process. Managing this risk is an important part of Bitcoin mining.

First, you need to evaluate which of the competing solutions will begin shipping earlier. Then, you need to get as close to the top of the purchase order list as possible. Otherwise, even if the choice in favor of one or another solution was made correctly, the complexity of bitcoin mining will have time to jump by the time the equipment reaches you, and you will miss out on all the cream of the new technology. Over six months, the profit that can be obtained on the same equipment drops by 15-20 times.

Disabling equipment


Figure 3. Daily profit from Bitcoin mining and corresponding energy costs.

(data source)

Figure 3 shows the daily profit per 1 GH/s that Bitcoin mining has generated since 2010. This chart combines historical data on mining difficulty and USD/BTC exchange rate. The sharp decline around November 2012 corresponds to a decrease in the block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. The horizontal lines show energy costs per 1 GH/s per day for: CPU (Core i5), GPU (AMD 7970), FPGA (Bitforce SHA256) and 110nm ASIC (AvalonBatch 1). When profit by 1 GH/s falls below this line, mining becomes unprofitable and the corresponding equipment is turned off.

To be continued.

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